Prospects for Large Cylinder Lithium-Ion Batteries in 2026: Technological Upgrades, Market Differentiation and Intelligent Manufacturing Empowerment

The large cylindrical lithium battery, with its high energy density, high safety, and fast charging potential, has become one of the important technical routes in the field of power batteries and energy storage. With the accelerated layout by vehicle manufacturers like Tesla and leading battery enterprises, the global large cylindrical battery market will reach a key node of large-scale expansion in 2026. This article will, from dimensions such as market conditions of various sub-models, end-user applications, and equipment upgrades, combined with authoritative data, look forward to the prospects in 2026. 

I. Overall Market Trend: Towards Scale and Cost Turning Point

According to the forecast by Gogge Energy Storage Industry (GGII), the global shipment volume of large cylindrical batteries (mainly referring to the series with a diameter of ≥ 32mm) is expected to exceed 450 GWh in 2026, and its share in the global battery power market is projected to rise to over 30%. The core driving force behind this growth is: 

Technical consensus reached: The all-limbless (no-limbless) technology effectively resolves the contradiction between high energy density and high power output in cylindrical batteries, enabling fast charging performance (such as charging to 80% within 15 minutes) and cycle life (＞1000 times) to meet vehicle-grade requirements. 

Scale effect cost reduction: With the expansion of Tesla's Texas factory and Nevada factory, as well as the capacity release of mainstream battery enterprises such as CATL, BYD Energy, Panasonic, and LG Energy Solution, large cylindrical batteries will see a rapid decline in manufacturing costs due to scale production. Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) analysis indicates that by 2026, the manufacturing cost of large cylindrical cells is expected to decrease by 25%-30% compared to 2023, approaching the cost range of lithium iron phosphate batteries, highlighting the cost advantage. 

II. Market Analysis of Sub-segment Models

1. 32/33 Series: The "Pioneer of Popularization" in the Passenger Vehicle Field 

Market positioning: Primarily targeted at mid-to-high-end electric passenger vehicles, while also considering performance and space utilization. 

Market data: According to the information disclosed in Tesla's 2023 fourth-quarter financial report and the Battery Day event, the capacity ramp-up of its 4680 (with a diameter of 46mm and a height of 80mm) battery (belonging to the 46 series, this is a reference benchmark) is the core focus. While the 32/33 series, as its derivative or complementary models, are expected to account for approximately 40% of the total capacity of large cylindrical batteries globally by 2026, in the capacity planning of major battery manufacturers worldwide. 

Key players and plans: Apart from Tesla's own production, Panasonic plans to increase the capacity of its 4680 battery at the Wakayama factory to 200GWh per year by the fiscal year 2025. Ever Victo Li Energy has announced the construction of over 100GWh of large cylindrical production capacity in places like Shenyang and Chengdu, including a large number of 32/33 series production lines. This series, due to its relatively flexible size, will become the mainstream choice for Model 3/Y, BMW's new generation models, and some new force models. 

2. Series 40: The "Balanced Choice" between Performance and Space 

Market positioning: Targeting high-end passenger vehicles, electric pickup trucks, and some commercial vehicles that seek greater battery endurance and fast charging capabilities. 

Market data: The 40 series, represented by 4695 (with a diameter of 46mm and a height of 95mm), can increase its energy density to above 300Wh/kg. SNE Research predicts that by 2026, the market share of the 40 series in large cylindrical batteries will increase to approximately 35%. 

Application Progress: Tesla's Cybertruck has been the first to adopt large-sized cylindrical batteries. Rivian has also stated that it will evaluate the use of large cylindrical batteries in its next-generation platform. Domestic automakers such as Jianghuai and NIO have also reserved the option of large cylindrical batteries in their relevant platform technical routes. The 40 series is one of the key technical paths to solve the current "range anxiety" and "charging anxiety" of electric vehicles. 

3. 60 Series (such as 4695/46120): The "Potential Track" for Energy Storage and Heavy Trucks 

Market positioning: Primarily targeted at large-scale energy storage systems (ESS) and heavy-duty electric trucks, ships, etc., which have extremely high requirements for cycle life, cost, and safety. 

Market data: The 60 series has a larger single-cell capacity and high system integration efficiency, giving it a natural advantage in the energy storage field. According to the outlook of the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance (CNESA), by 2026, the proportion of new energy storage projects in China that use large cylindrical cells (especially the 60 series) is expected to increase from the current less than 5% to 15%-20%. 

Prospects: Currently, this series is still in the early stages of market validation and standard setting. CATL has announced that its "solid-state battery" technology can be adapted for large cylindrical forms, targeting ultra-high-end markets such as aviation. In the heavy truck sector, companies like Daimler Trucks are actively exploring the feasibility of large cylindrical batteries. The year 2026 is likely to be the first year when the 60 series achieves commercial breakthroughs in non-vehicle applications. 

III. Distribution of Terminal Applications: Passenger Vehicles Dominant, Energy Storage Accelerating 

Electric vehicles (especially passenger cars): remain the dominant force. It is expected that by 2026, more than 80% of the installed capacity of large cylindrical batteries will be used in pure electric passenger cars. Among them, SUVs and pickup trucks, due to their spacious interiors, will become the main models to adopt large cylindrical batteries (especially the 40 series). 

Energy Storage System (ESS): This is the fastest-growing application field. With the reform of the power market and the deepening of policies for storing renewable energy, the penetration rate of large cylindrical batteries in industrial and commercial energy storage and large power station energy storage will rapidly increase. It is expected that by 2026, the application proportion will approach 15%. 

Other fields: The high-end product lines in areas such as power tools and two-wheel vehicles have begun to trial the 32 series, but the overall proportion is still relatively small. Heavy transportation (trucks, ships) is still in the demonstration operation stage. 

IV. Intelligent Manufacturing Enabling: Machine Saint Automation - The Source of Efficiency Revolution in the Large Round Battery Pack Production Line

The widespread adoption of large round battery cells is not only dependent on the maturity of cell technology, but also on the improvement of efficiency and cost control in the subsequent Pack (battery pack) manufacturing process. The traditional Pack assembly method faces challenges such as numerous weld seams, high consistency and yield requirements, and low production efficiency.

As the original manufacturer and technology leader of the large round battery Pack automation production line, Machine Saint Automation deeply understands the industry's pain points. Through the following innovations, it will surely achieve significant cost reduction and efficiency improvement for downstream customers: 

Breakthrough in all-pole ear intelligent welding technology: For the large-capacity cylindrical all-pole ear structure, Jisheng Automation has developed an integrated platform combining high-speed laser welding and intelligent quality monitoring. The welding speed has increased by more than 40%, and the welding yield remains stable at 99.8%. This ensures the reliability and consistency of the Pack module from the very beginning, significantly reducing rework costs. 

Modular and flexible production line design: The production line adopts a highly modular design, which can quickly adapt to different series sizes of battery cells such as 32, 40, and 60, reducing the changeover time by 70%. The flexible production meets the market demand of car manufacturers for multiple models and small batches, and reduces the initial investment and capacity idle risks for customers. 

"Production Line Brain" Digital Twin System: Integrates MES, digital twin, and AI visual inspection systems to achieve full-process data traceability and real-time optimization from cell loading to finished product packaging. Through predictive maintenance and self-tuning of process parameters, the overall equipment efficiency (OEE) can be increased by 25%, while reducing operating costs. 

Integration efficiency and material cost optimization: Through precise mechanical structure design and integrated process of thermal management components, the system integration efficiency of the battery pack (from cells to Pack) has been enhanced to over 85%. At the same time, by simplifying the structural components, it helps customers reduce the bill of materials (BOM) cost of the Pack. 

Conclusion:

In 2026, the market for large cylindrical lithium batteries will present a clear pattern of "technological diversification, application-oriented, and intelligent manufacturing". The 32/33 series will be widely adopted in the mainstream passenger vehicle market, the 40 series will strive for the high-end performance market, and the 60 series will be ready to take off in new blue oceans such as energy storage. During this crucial process of industrial chain upgrading, manufacturers like Jisheng Automation, which focus on the innovation of underlying processes and intelligent equipment, will directly empower battery enterprises and vehicle manufacturers by providing efficient, flexible, and reliable overall solution for battery packs. They will become an indispensable core force in promoting the reduction of manufacturing costs, enhancement of product competitiveness, and acceleration of commercialization of large cylindrical batteries. The competition for large cylindrical batteries in the second half will be a competition of "intelligent manufacturing efficiency".